Western Balkans Watch and Warn: Serbia’s election uncertainty, regional tensions and late-summer information manipulation
The prospect of early presidential and parliamentary elections is likely to intensify competition over political legitimacy and Serbia’s strategic direction. President Aleksandar Vučić has indicated that elections could take place earlier than the regular electoral cycle, while student-led protests continue to challenge the current political establishment. The campaign environment may therefore generate competing narratives portraying elections either as a democratic mechanism for restoring stability or as an attempt by the ruling establishment to consolidate power.
Serbia’s polarized media environment is likely to amplify these competing narratives. Government-aligned actors may emphasize stability, economic development and the leadership’s role in protecting national interests, while opposition actors may focus on corruption, institutional accountability and democratic backsliding. Russian-aligned information operations could reinforce these divisions through anti-Western narratives portraying EU integration as a threat to Serbian sovereignty and Russia and China as alternative strategic partners.
The regional dimension is particularly important. Narratives concerning Kosovo and Republika Srpska may be used to portray political change in Serbia as a threat to wider Serbian interests, while claims concerning citizenship, pensions or alleged voter migration could target Serbian communities in neighbouring countries. Such narratives may cross borders quickly and reinforce existing political and ethnic tensions across the Western Balkans.
At the same time, Serbia’s election uncertainty is not the only regional information risk expected during August. Late-summer issues such as wildfires, migration-management debates, border access, visa policies and unresolved war-memory questions may also create opportunities for misleading or manipulative narratives. These issues often begin from real public concerns but can be amplified through selective framing, decontextualized incidents or emotionally charged social media content. This makes August a period in which domestic political disputes, regional identity narratives and seasonal vulnerabilities may reinforce one another.
Albania: Protests, coastal development and EU accession
The controversy is likely to develop into a broader political confrontation rather than remain focused on environmental legislation. Opposition parties and the Flamingo protest movement may use the failed repeal effort and subsequent parliamentary proceedings to expand mobilization around corruption, media freedom, public land and government accountability. Government-aligned actors, meanwhile, may present the legislation as necessary for investment and economic development while portraying protests as politically motivated attempts to undermine stability.
Albania’s recent accession progress may also become part of the same information environment. The EU and Albania provisionally closed the country’s first three negotiating chapters in July, enabling the government to present reform momentum as tangible. At the same time, critics may argue that accession milestones are being used to overshadow unresolved concerns about corruption, environmental governance and public participation, particularly when investment projects intersect with protected areas and public land.
The role of foreign investors is likely to remain a particularly sensitive part of the information environment. The Kushner-linked resort has already attracted international attention because of concerns that the project could conflict with EU environmental standards. Competing actors may selectively present information about the project and other coastal developments to reinforce narratives about state capture, foreign influence, corruption or the government’s disregard for environmental protections. In some online spaces, the controversy may also be exploited through antisemitic narratives, shifting attention away from environmental governance and transparency toward broader geopolitical or identity-based manipulation.
Regional relations with North Macedonia may also become a source of information manipulation. Albania’s recent decision to declare ethnic Albanian citizens of North MacedoniaValon Bela and Bekir Halimi persona non grata, following the earlier case of Ikballe Huduti, is likely to generate competing narratives about national security, sovereignty and freedom of expression. Albanian authorities have framed the measures around activities considered harmful to the state, while opposition and regional voices may portray them as politically repressive or as restrictions on expression. The cases could be exploited to reinforce ethnic or religious divisions and generate broader narratives about Albania’s relations with North Macedonia and the wider Albanian community in the region.
Migration is likely to remain another important information-risk area. The Italy–Albania migration arrangement and the Gjadër centre continue to provide material for competing narratives over migration policy, EU credibility and Albania’s role in European migration management. Recent debate around the wider European adoption of “Albania-model” return or processing hubs could revive narratives portraying Albania as a successful model for controlling migration, as well as opposing narratives focusing on human rights, costs and the externalization of European migration policy.
Migration-related disinformation may also include false or misleading claims about migrants’ origins, particularly narratives scapegoating Moroccan or other foreign migrants for incidents in Europe. Such content can reinforce anti-migrant sentiment and stereotypes and may be adapted to Albania’s domestic political context. Taken together, domestic political tensions, regional disputes, migration policy, high-profile foreign investment and EU scrutiny are likely to make Albania a significant point for information manipulation.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Croat representation and cross-border political narratives
The debate is likely to remain closely connected to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s longstanding disputes over electoral legitimacy and the constitutional position of the three constituent peoples. HDZ BiH and other Bosnian Croat actors may use the Croatian resolution to reinforce demands for changes to electoral rules and greater guarantees of Croat political representation, while Bosniak and other political actors may portray such demands as contributing to further ethnic division or political entrenchment.
Croatia’s position as an EU and NATO member adds a wider geopolitical dimension to the issue. Political actors may frame Zagreb’s involvement either as legitimate support from an EU member for the rights of Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina or as external pressure that complicates the country’s sovereignty and institutional reform. These competing interpretations could also become linked to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU accession process and broader debates over constitutional reform.
The issue therefore has potential to generate cross-border information manipulation, particularly through selective reporting of statements by Croatian and Bosnian officials. Claims that one ethnic group is being systematically deprived of political rights, or conversely that constitutional reforms are being used to strengthen ethnic control over institutions, could reinforce existing polarization. Any new consultations or high-level statements in August may therefore become a focal point for broader narratives concerning representation, sovereignty and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s political future.
Republika Srpska’s increased lobbying activity in the United States may also become a source of competing narratives during August. BIRN and Capital reported that Republika Srpska has spent almost as much on US lobbying since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 as during the previous three years combined, while US sanctions against Milorad Dodik and connected individuals and companies were later lifted. Supporters of the RS leadership may present this as evidence of renewed international legitimacy under the Trump administration. Critics, however, may frame the lobbying expenditure as an attempt to use public resources to secure political protection for sanctioned elites. In the information environment, this may reinforce narratives portraying international pressure on RS leadership either as anti-Serb persecution or as a rule-of-law issue connected to corruption, secessionist threats and the future of the Dayton order.
Kosovo: Coalition negotiations, institutional legitimacy and contested government formation
Following the certification of Kosovo’s early parliamentary election results, coalition negotiations are likely to become the central political focus as parties attempt to secure the parliamentary majority required to form a new instutions including the election of a new president. The certification process opened the way for institutional formation, while the election results left Vetëvendosje (LVV) as the strongest political force but without an outright majority to elect a president itself, increasing the importance of negotiations with opposition parties and minority representatives to secure the required presence and support of 80 MPs for the presidential election process.
Vetëvendosje, led by Prime Minister Albin Kurti, is expected to seek support for forming a governing coalition, while opposition parties including the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) and Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), alongside minority representatives, are likely to assess possible coalition arrangements and define their political conditions. Given Kosovo’s fragmented parliamentary arithmetic and recent experience with institutional deadlock, negotiations may not immediately result in a stable governing majority, creating a prolonged period of political uncertainty.
The government formation process is likely to generate competing narratives surrounding democratic legitimacy and institutional functionality. Supporters of LVV may frame coalition negotiations as a normal democratic process reflecting the electoral mandate, while opposition actors may portray potential delays or failed agreements as evidence of political mismanagement or the inability of the ruling party to translate electoral support into effective governance. Conversely, accusations that political actors are attempting to obstruct the will of voters may also emerge, reinforcing existing political polarization.
Constitutional procedures and parliamentary mechanisms are expected to become a key area of information contestation. Discussions concerning mandates, deadlines, the role of the Assembly and the responsibilities of political actors may become simplified or distorted in public debate, creating opportunities for narratives portraying institutions either as deliberately blocking political change or as incapable of resolving political disputes. Previous institutional crises have already demonstrated how procedural disputes can become central elements of political competition.
The role of minority representatives, including Serb and other non-majority communities, is also likely to become part of broader political messaging. Competing actors may frame minority participation either as an essential element of Kosovo’s constitutional system and inclusive governance or as a mechanism of political bargaining that influences government formation. These narratives may intersect with existing debates concerning sovereignty, representation and Kosovo’s internal political divisions.
The period following the elections may also create opportunities for broader geopolitical narratives concerning Kosovo’s international position. Political uncertainty in Pristina may be used by domestic and external actors to question Kosovo’s institutional stability, democratic progress and ability to advance European integration reforms. At the same time, developments surrounding government formation are likely to continue being interpreted through the wider regional context, including Kosovo-Serbia relations, international mediation efforts and the country’s relationship with Euro-Atlantic partners.
A separate but sensitive risk concerns ongoing forensic and institutional processes related to missing persons from the Kosovo war, including recent developments in Zubin Potok/Kalludër. Before forensic and judicial procedures are complete, premature or politicized claims may circulate, including attempts to deny, exaggerate, instrumentalize or ethnically frame the case. Public communication that prioritizes verified information and the rights of families of missing persons will be essential to reduce the space for manipulation.
Montenegro: Visa regime reform, EU alignment and competing sovereignty narratives
The migrant-hub issue has already demonstrated its potential to generate rapid and emotionally charged narratives. Reports about Montenegro’s possible inclusion on a preliminary EU list were followed by Prime Minister Milojko Spajić publicly rejecting the claims, while regional outlets amplified competing interpretations. Pro-Russian and anti-EU media may use the issue to portray Brussels as imposing unwanted migration policies on Montenegro, while conspiratorial narratives may claim that EU financial assistance or accession benefits are being exchanged for accepting migrants. The issue is particularly susceptible to manipulation because it intersects with concerns over national sovereignty, demographic change, security and Montenegro’s future relationship with the EU.
The narrative is also likely to recur in waves rather than follow Montenegro’s domestic political calendar. Similar government denials have appeared previously, while wider European developments around return hubs, offshore processing and the expansion of the “Albania model” can quickly bring Montenegro back into the discussion. Any new proposal or statement from EU or Italian officials could therefore trigger renewed speculation, misleading claims and politically charged reporting.
The visa-regime reform represents a secondary but related information risk. Montenegro’s decision to align its visa policy with the EU and introduce visa requirements for Russian citizens from November is likely to generate narratives around Russia, EU alignment, tourism and national sovereignty. However, the reform currently appears to face limited domestic political resistance, with criticism coming primarily from Russian officials and media. This makes it a less immediate source of domestic information manipulation than the migration debate, although it may still reinforce broader narratives portraying Montenegro as being pushed away from Russia and toward greater EU dependence.
North Macedonia: Wildfire season, conspiracy narratives and foreign influence
North Macedonia is likely to remain vulnerable to disinformation surrounding wildfires as high temperatures and dry conditions increase the potential for fires during August. The scale, location and visibility of individual fires are likely to influence the volume of online speculation, with major fires creating particularly favorable conditions for unverified claims about their causes and government response.
Previous wildfire seasons have demonstrated the recurrence of conspiracy narratives attributing fires to HAARP, chemtrails, lasers or directed-energy weapons allegedly deployed from satellites. Such narratives may be amplified by foreign information influence networks, while pro-Kremlin actors may also use the fires to promote claims that North Macedonia’s support for Ukraine has reduced its ability to respond to domestic emergencies.
Domestic political narratives are also likely to emerge around the causes and management of wildfires. Political opponents or other actors may accuse government officials, politicians or business interests of deliberately starting fires to clear land for solar-power projects or other commercial development. Claims that fires are politically orchestrated or that authorities are deliberately failing to respond may further undermine trust in institutions.
The wildfire season may also create opportunities for scapegoating migrants, particularly if fires occur near areas associated with migration routes or if authorities are unable to immediately establish their causes. Unverified accusations against migrants could reinforce existing xenophobic narratives and contribute to hate speech, particularly during periods of heightened public concern.
The combination of extreme weather, highly visible fires and uncertainty over their causes is therefore likely to create a particularly vulnerable information environment. While many false or misleading claims may originate domestically, the wildfire narrative space also provides opportunities for foreign actors to exploit existing political grievances, anti-Western sentiment and distrust in institutions. These wildfire narratives may also intersect with wider political debates about institutional capacity, crisis management and public trust, especially if emergency communication is slow or inconsistent.
Serbia: US strategic dialogue, institutional legitimacy and pressure on journalists
A follow-up Serbia–US Strategic Dialogue or political consultation is likely to take place in August following the first meeting in July. Discussions may focus on regional stability, energy diversification, security cooperation and democratic governance, with Serbian officials likely to present the engagement as pragmatic diplomacy rather than a shift in the country’s broader foreign-policy orientation. The timing is significant as Serbia continues to balance relations with Western partners alongside its ties with Russia and China.
The engagement with Washington is likely to generate competing narratives concerning Serbia’s strategic direction and sovereignty. Government-aligned actors may frame closer cooperation with the US as evidence of pragmatic diplomacy and Serbia’s ability to maintain constructive relations with different international partners. Opposition and anti-Western actors, however, may portray the dialogue as evidence of increasing US pressure or attempts to influence Serbia’s domestic and foreign-policy decisions. Issues including Kosovo, energy diversification and security cooperation could become particularly vulnerable to selective or misleading framing. This may also intersect with major infrastructure and energy debates, including the role of Bechtel–ENKA in the Iron Gate III hydropower project.
Continued uncertainty over the timing and form of possible early elections may further increase speculation and create space for competing claims about whether elections would restore stability or consolidate the ruling establishment’s control. Government-aligned narratives may present elections as a democratic mechanism for stabilizing the country and confirming political legitimacy, while opposition actors may frame them as an attempt to manage public pressure without addressing demands related to corruption, media freedom and institutional accountability.
The dialogue is also likely to intersect with Serbia’s ongoing domestic political tensions and questions surrounding the legitimacy of political institutions. Continued pressure on journalists and media workers may become part of the broader discussion on democratic governance, particularly if new incidents involving intimidation, political attacks or restrictions on media freedom occur during the period. Such developments could reinforce competing narratives portraying institutions either as protecting democratic stability or as failing to provide accountability and political representation.
The revival of the “Vojvodina question” may further reinforce internal-enemy narratives in pro-government media. Opposition and civic actors may be portrayed not only as foreign-backed, but also as anti-Serbian or separatist, allowing government-aligned narratives to frame political dissent as a threat to national unity rather than as democratic contestation. This fits a broader pattern in which protest movements, journalists, civil society actors and opposition parties are delegitimized through claims of foreign orchestration, separatism or attempts to weaken Serbia from within.
Renewed protest activity may also become more plausible toward the end of August if new incidents involving policing, journalists, surveillance or politically motivated legal action provide a trigger. While large-scale mobilization is less likely during most of August due to the seasonal slowdown, renewed demonstrations could again become a focal point for competing narratives about institutional legitimacy and political accountability. The interaction between domestic political tensions and renewed engagement with Washington may therefore create an information environment in which individual developments are increasingly interpreted through broader narratives about Serbia’s democratic trajectory, sovereignty and international alignment.
Learn more
Recommended relevant publications related to information integrity in Western Balkans
- Anatomy of foreign malign influence and information threats in the Western Balkans: Insights from the Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub project (2022–2025)
- Study on disinformation and media use among the golden generation in Albania
- An analysis of Serbia’s alignment with the European Union’s foreign policy declarations and measures: Semi Annual review for 2026
- Countering the Narrative, Not Just the Lie: How Combating Information Manipulation Must Change
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Disinfo Radar: Watch and Warn is a monthly publication, part of the alert system of data-driven early warning of disinformation in the Western Balkans. The Disinfo Radar provides advance warning about anticipated flashpoint events likely to fuel disinformation narratives based on the risk assessment analysis of results of continuous media monitoring and the previous experience with recurring disinformation campaigns. The preparation of Disinfo Radar is supported by AI-assisted tools for monitoring, clustering and drafting support. All assessments and final texts are reviewed by human editors and validated by regional experts.
The information provided by the Disinfo Radar is presented in concise, easy to read format and disseminated via the antidisinfo.net content hub, an email newsletter, and via the most popular social networks in the region.
This publication is an information service produced by Metamorphosis Foundation in cooperation with partner network including International and Security Affairs Centre (ISAC), Sbunker, Faktoje.al, and Center for Democracy and Human Rights (CEDEM).
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